Written by Lloyd Adams, Investment Manager, TEAM Plc With the 9 July deadline for potential U.S. tariff increases suspended, markets will now focus on how trade talks will progress. Earlier this week President Trump sent letters to 14 countries, including Japan and South Korea, warning that higher levies could still take effect from 1 August. Only a few deals have so far been struck — namely with the UK, Vietnam, and China, and talks with the EU and Japan remain difficult, although some compromises look inevitable.. President Trump also warned of a fresh 10% tariff on countries aligning with what he described as the “Anti-American policies of BRICS,” a group of developing nations meeting in Brazil. The BRICS leaders criticised unilateral tariffs and protectionism, saying such moves risk harming the global economy. Trump’s statement followed their joint declaration, widely seen as a direct critique of his trade stance. The BRICS bloc, which includes China, Russia, India and others, aims to challenge Western dominance in global finance and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar. Despite a shorter trading week in the U.S. due to the Fourth of July holiday, there was plenty for investors to digest. The June U.S. jobs report came in stronger than expected, with 147,000 new roles added — nearly half coming from state and local government jobs. The figures suggest the U.S. economy remains steady, prompting investors to rein in expectations of an imminent interest rate cut. With inflation still being closely monitored, the Federal Reserve now looks more likely to wait until the autumn before making any move. President Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” was signed into law on Friday. While the figures are eye-watering, the bill doesn’t introduce much in the way of fresh stimulus, it mainly avoids a sharp rise in taxes that would have taken place otherwise. It mainly benefits the wealthiest Americans, especially those earning over £700,000 a year. However, it does little for lower- and middle-income families, many of whom could be worse off due to significant cuts to social programmes such as Medicaid and food assistance. Oil prices picked up slightly this week but remain well below their recent highs, having fallen sharply since late June. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+) agreed last weekend to increase the supply by 550,000 barrels per day, continuing the gradual trend seen in recent months. Hopes of renewed U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are also influencing sentiment, putting some downward pressure on prices. In metals, copper briefly pushed past a key price level before slipping back, weighed down by a stronger dollar and uncertainty over U.S. trade policy. Gold, by contrast, remains in demand, with investors seeking safe havens and central banks continuing to build reserves. Bitcoin briefly broke above the $110,000 mark this week before easing back, though institutional demand remains strong. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hit a new high, now holding a notable share of all coins in circulation. It was a strong week for trading platform Robinhood, whose shares jumped nearly 14% after it announced plans to offer tokenised versions of over 200 U.S. stocks and funds to European users. This marks another step forward in the wider trend of financial market tokenisation. Meanwhile, Tesla had a tougher time, falling 2.5% after reporting a sharp year-on-year drop in vehicle deliveries for the second quarter. Then on Monday, Tesla’s share price fell a further 7% following Elon Musk’s announcement that he intends to form a new political party. Even so, investors remain hopeful about future growth, supported by new models, a potential recovery in China, and the long-awaited launch of the firm’s robotaxi. Attention now turns to the second half of the year, with company earnings season set to begin shortly. Markets will also be watching closely for Chinese inflation data and the latest minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Written by Andrew Gillham, Head of Fixed Income, TEAM Plc American stocks extended their recovery to set new record highs after Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire and on optimism that more countries will reach trade deals with the US in the coming weeks. The blue-chip S&P 500 and technology focussed Nasdaq gained 3.0% and 3.8% respectively over the week. Remarkedly, the S&P 500 has recovered 25% from it’s low on 8 April, in the wake of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcements, and is up 6% since the start of the year. However, due to the sharp decline of the US Dollar, the returns on US blue-chip stocks for European (-7%) and UK (-4%) remain in negative territory for the first half of the year. The US Dollar index has declined 10.7% in the first half of 2025, its weakest start to a year since 1973, largely due to the more combative foreign policies of the White House administration which have undermined America’s trusted, safe-haven status internationally. Shares in Nvidia, the US semiconductor manufacturing giant, gained 10% over the week, enabling it to regain its status as the world’s most valuable company with a market capitalisation of $3.8 trillion, ahead of Microsoft ($3.7 trillion) and Apple ($3.0 trillion). Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang told the audience at the company’s annual shareholder meeting that artificial intelligence and robotics are “multitrillion-dollar growth opportunity” as companies build out infrastructure critical for AI applications. He also asserted that Nvidia’s high-end AI chips will be the technology of choice in the future for “billions of robots” and “millions of autonomous vehicles”. Nvidia has already launched a self-driving car platform which is being used by Mercedes-Benz in the development of new cars. Nike was another standout performer during the week. Shares in the sportswear manufacturer jumped 15% on Friday, their biggest daily jump in four years, after it reported better-than-feared quarterly earnings. Although chief executive Elliott Hill, who returned to the company from retirement last year, warned that tariffs costs will be around $1 billion, investors welcomed early signs that its turnaround strategy is starting to pay off. Revenues during the quarter fell 12% to $11.1 billion, ahead of consensus forecasts of $10.7 billion, and sales of running products were up by high single digits, an area where competition from emerging rivals such as Hoka and On has been fierce. Under Hill’s turnaround plan, Nike has resumed selling products on Amazon for the first time since 2019 and has prioritised marketing to female shoppers. Nike (-30%) was the second-worst performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index last year. Closer to home, shares in BP fell more than 5% on the week after Shell said it had “no intention” of making a bid for its rival, ending months of speculation of a tie-up between the UK’s two largest oil companies to create a global energy giant. Under stock exchange rules, Shell is prohibited from making an offer for BP for at least six months. Earlier this year BP announced a shift away from renewable energy to refocus on oil and gas activities and is seeking to sell $20 billion of assets by 2027 to shore up its balance sheet. Oil majors were also impacted by lower oil prices last week in the wake of the Israel-Iran ceasefire. Brent crude has retreated more than $10 from its recent peak to $67 a barrel as the threat of Iran blockading the Strait of Hormuz has faded. Around 20% of global oil and gas flows through the narrow shipping lane. Safe-haven assets, including gold and government bonds, also saw outflows as the tensions in the Middle East eased. In the week ahead, the focus in the economic calendar will be on Thursday’s US nonfarm payrolls report. The monthly report, which will be released a day early due to the Independence Day holiday, is a key barometer of the health of the US economy and analysts expect it will show that around 100,000 jobs were added in June. Any reading below that will put more pressure on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates later this month.  

Written by David Gorman, Investment Manager and Chair of Equity Sub Committee, TEAM plc At the weekend, yet another geopolitical event took the markets by surprise, but it still did not challenge the stability of the market. President Trump’s decision to join Israel and bomb three nuclear refining facilities within Iran, seems to have been planned, executed and considered very carefully. He also revived his ‘Make America Great Again’ slogan but this time he called it MIGA (Make Iran Great Again), suggesting that the present regime is incapable of making the country prosper. All eyes have been on what Tehran’s response would be and whether shipping will be able to continue to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This avenue accounts for 25% of seaborne oil supplies and if blockaded (should Iran be willing and able) could easily have sent oil prices up by a third or mor and over $100 per barrel. However, the Iranians did retaliate with a symbolic (and signposted) attack on a US base in Qatar. What immediately followed was an agreed ceasefire from Israel and Iran. Drop the bomb and then negotiate has seemingly worked the trick for the Trump administration and Israel. Even so, many uncertainties remain. The relief in the oil market has seen prices drop over 10% providing much needed help for hard stretched car drivers as pump prices will now likely fall in the weeks ahead. Stock markets have been well behaved with little movement in the immediate aftermath of the attack and are pressing ahead again on the ceasefire news. US equity indices are now within 3% of all-time highs. Even safe haven money favourites such as gold and precious metals have seen subdued price action. It sadly feels as if the markets (and indeed all of us) have become conditioned to all the awful news stemming from Russia/Ukraine, Israel/Palestine and now Israel/Iran. Diplomacy is clearly better than war but a successful outcome to Iran/Israel is not yet a one-way bet. Elsewhere, Central banks were in the news as the Bank of England decided to keep interest rates unchanged but did give a clear signal that a rate cut is on the table for August. The Federal Reserve also kept rates the same, but through Chairman, Jerome Powell’s press conference, markets are anticipating ‘a wait and see’ mode until October. With global trade tariff uncertainty and the potential for Middle East oil disruptions, any forecasts should be read with ‘a large pinch of salt.’ The lack of inflation in Switzerland saw a cut in rates to zero from 0.1%, so are we again on the path there to negative interest rates? Even though most investors will be watching events in the Middle East, there will be eyes on the 9 July deadline and an end to the temporary pause on certain US tariffs. Another eye-catching event is whether the Republican party can put through Congress the ‘One Big Beautiful Bill’- a sweeping piece of legislation, increasing debt and providing huge tax cuts that President Trump would like to pass before US Independence Day on 4 July? This week the US has the latest reading for the Purchasing manager indices which continue to point to a further activity slowdown. Although a possible lifting of trade tensions may have helped, there are so many geo-political uncertainties that sentiment is unlikely to turn quickly. Jerome Powell, the Fed Chairman, is likely to be in the news headlines again with his semi-annual testimony to Congress where he will be asked to clarify thinking on interest rate cuts and US bank stress test results amongst other matters. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation is released later in the week which will prove a useful additive to the debate on the timing of any further rate cuts. Finally, the NATO summit on 24/25 June takes place at the Hague, in Amsterdam. Of interest will be how Members plan to make NATO stronger in the wake of the challenges ahead such as cyber- attacks, critical infrastructure weakness in certain member states along with keeping the US and President Trump happy. Sir Kier Starmer is set to pledge to NATO that the UK will increase spending on national security to 5% of GDP by 2035.

Written by John Beverley At NEBA Financial Solutions, we specialise in building practical, transparent investments for international advisers and their clients. A core strategy we advocate for involves indexed structured products based on major global market indices such as the S&P 500, FTSE 100, and EuroStoxx 50.  These indices are known for their long-term resilience and relatively quick recovery following market downturns—making them ideal foundations for structured notes. Unlike volatile markets like Brazil or India, these major indices provide the stability and predictability required for effective long-term planning.    Two Smart Structures – Different Strengths  We focus on two specific types of indexed structured products, both of which serve distinct client needs depending on income preferences and investment timelines.  1. High Coupon Trigger Notes (100%)  These structured notes only pay a coupon when the indices are at or above their initial level on a given observation date.  Key Features:  Coupon Trigger: 100% of the initial index level  Capital Protection: Typically protected unless the index falls below a barrier (e.g. 60%) at maturity  Returns: High coupons, but less frequent payments  Income Timing: May not pay anything during early years if indices underperform  Use Case: For clients comfortable waiting for the market to recover in exchange for a larger payout    2. Low Coupon Trigger Notes (e.g. 85%)  These pay regular income as long as the indices remain above 85% of their starting level—even if the market has fallen.  Key Features:  Coupon Trigger: 85% of the initial index level  Capital Protection: Same as above (usually at maturity)  Returns: Lower coupons, but more consistent income  Income Timing: Pays regularly unless there’s a significant market drop  Use Case: Ideal for clients needing steady income and a buffer against mild volatility    What They Have in Common  Both types of notes often include:  Major Index Exposure (S&P 500, FTSE 100, EuroStoxx 50)  Capital protection barriers at maturity (commonly around 60–70%)  Auto-call features, allowing the note to mature early when certain performance conditions are met    Why I’d Use Both?  As a balanced investor myself, I find the combination of both note types delivers the best of both worlds:  50% in Low Coupon Trigger Notes:  Provides steady income  Helps cover platform charges, advice fees so more of your money can stay invested  50% in High Coupon Trigger Notes:  Targets higher long-term return  Allows for upside capture once the markets recover  By using both structures, advisers can help clients:  Receive predictable cash flow  Access enhanced total returns  Maintain capital risk within acceptable levels    Who Is This Strategy Suitable For?  This balanced approach works well for:  Advisers managing client portfolios in uncertain markets  Balanced and conservative investors seeking alternatives to bonds or funds  Clients needing regular income from their portfolio  Investors looking to add defined return strategies to their holdings  Final Thoughts  Indexed structured products are not all created equal, but when built on strong indices and structured with care, they can form a valuable core or satellite investment in any client’s portfolio.  By combining high and low coupon triggers, advisers can offer clients both consistency and growth—without stepping outside acceptable risk boundaries.   

Written by John Beverley The word “Guaranteed” gets instant attention. People everywhere are looking for something GUARANTEED, but at what point is the word “Guarantee” putting your clients’ money at risk? Sadly, some IFAs doesn’t read the investment terms correctly and assume the whole investment in Guaranteed, or that the Guarantee is conditional on something happening, e.g. A guarantee that your property investment will be bought back after 5 or 8 years. However, TOB clause 1008b states that the guaranteed buyback is only guaranteed if the investment has a buyer. Yes, this is a real example. So unbelievable but yet so many people sell this type of investment to their clients. I can guarantee to sell your house in a week…… “as long as I have a buyer”. There is also a big difference between Capital Guaranteed and Coupon Guaranteed. One supposedly looks after the clients’ initial investment, the other ensures a minimum return is achieved. Each still carries risk. Points to consider: Have you noticed how many “Guaranteed Investments” ran into trouble last year? Hopefully you were not exposed to them, but NEBA hear about them all. Whether it was Guaranteed Capital or Guaranteed Coupons there are people now worrying over whether any money will be paid at all. This will always happen when the markets are rough and last year was no exception. NEBA want everyone to be truly informed when it comes to what they are investing in. So, let’s run through an example: I have taken a high guaranteed return of 10% and switched the Guarantee with a Conditional Return (50% Coupon Trigger). Although no longer Guaranteed, one underlying asset would need to drop 50% to stop coupons being paid. Do you really think your clients would be concerned if they are getting a coupon or not, if their investment has dropped more than 50%? I think they would be more concerned about their initial investment at this point. Investment Scenario: The volatility needed to get a Guaranteed Coupon of 10% is astronomical. Can it drop more than 50%? YES IT CAN! So essentially you are putting the clients Capital Investment at risk for the sake of a “Guaranteed” return. Therefore, if the clients target return was 10% p.a., NEBA would suggest moving to a Conditional Coupon. Why?? This way we can remove the risky underlying(s) and replace with safer ones that have a much higher chance of staying well within the protection parameters. I don’t get the point of adding volatility to an investment which puts the clients capital at risk simply to “guarantee” a return. I am confident the average client would rather not hit their target return than risk the money they worked so hard for. Market volatility normally provides a better pricing environment. However, it is important that you understand what you’re buying. So before purchasing anything, read the instructions. If you don’t know what you’re buying, ask for an explanation. Simple as that. See also https://nebablog.com/2018/08/13/100-capital-protection-myth-or-real/ Visit www.nebafinancialsolutions.com to see our Structured Products and UCITS  Structured notes can be powerful tools in portfolio construction — when chosen correctly. But with so many variations in product design, risk profiles, and payout structures, it’s easy for even experienced advisors to be misled by superficial features like the advertised coupon rate.    

Written by John Beverley The word “Guaranteed” gets instant attention. People everywhere are looking for something GUARANTEED, but at what point is the word “Guarantee” putting your clients’ money at risk? Sadly, some IFAs doesn’t read the investment terms correctly and assume the whole investment in Guaranteed, or that the Guarantee is conditional on something happening, e.g. A guarantee that your property investment will be bought back after 5 or 8 years. However, TOB clause 1008b states that the guaranteed buyback is only guaranteed if the investment has a buyer. Yes, this is a real example. So unbelievable but yet so many people sell this type of investment to their clients. I can guarantee to sell your house in a week…… “as long as I have a buyer”. There is also a big difference between Capital Guaranteed and Coupon Guaranteed. One supposedly looks after the clients’ initial investment, the other ensures a minimum return is achieved. Each still carries risk. Points to consider: Have you noticed how many “Guaranteed Investments” ran into trouble last year? Hopefully you were not exposed to them, but NEBA hear about them all. Whether it was Guaranteed Capital or Guaranteed Coupons there are people now worrying over whether any money will be paid at all. This will always happen when the markets are rough and last year was no exception. NEBA want everyone to be truly informed when it comes to what they are investing in. So, let’s run through an example: I have taken a high guaranteed return of 10% and switched the Guarantee with a Conditional Return (50% Coupon Trigger). Although no longer Guaranteed, one underlying asset would need to drop 50% to stop coupons being paid. Do you really think your clients would be concerned if they are getting a coupon or not, if their investment has dropped more than 50%? I think they would be more concerned about their initial investment at this point. Investment Scenario: The volatility needed to get a Guaranteed Coupon of 10% is astronomical. Can it drop more than 50%? YES IT CAN! So essentially you are putting the clients Capital Investment at risk for the sake of a “Guaranteed” return. Therefore, if the clients target return was 10% p.a., NEBA would suggest moving to a Conditional Coupon. Why?? This way we can remove the risky underlying(s) and replace with safer ones that have a much higher chance of staying well within the protection parameters. I don’t get the point of adding volatility to an investment which puts the clients capital at risk simply to “guarantee” a return. I am confident the average client would rather not hit their target return than risk the money they worked so hard for. Market volatility normally provides a better pricing environment. However, it is important that you understand what you’re buying. So before purchasing anything, read the instructions. If you don’t know what you’re buying, ask for an explanation. Simple as that. See also https://nebablog.com/2018/08/13/100-capital-protection-myth-or-real/ Visit www.nebafinancialsolutions.com to see our Structured Products and UCITS  Structured notes can be powerful tools in portfolio construction — when chosen correctly. But with so many variations in product design, risk profiles, and payout structures, it’s easy for even experienced advisors to be misled by superficial features like the advertised coupon rate.    

Structured notes can be powerful tools in portfolio construction — when chosen correctly. But with so many variations in product design, risk profiles, and payout structures, it’s easy for even experienced advisors to be misled by superficial features like the advertised coupon rate. ✅ 1. Understand the Two Core Risks Every structured note carries two main types of risk: Capital Risk – the possibility of losing the original investment. Return (Coupon) Risk – the chance that the client won’t receive the advertised coupon or return. A common misconception is that increasing capital protection must reduce return potential — but this isn’t always true. A skilled adviser can balance these two risks independently. The goal is to find the “sweet spot” where capital is well protected, and the coupon is still attractive under realistic conditions. ✅ 2. Avoid Judging Suitability by Coupon Size High advertised coupons often catch attention, but they’re not guarantees of actual returns. Some advisers (and clients) wrongly assume that a high coupon equals higher risk, or greater reward. In reality: A structured note could have 100% capital protection and a 40% coupon pa – but the likelihood of achieving that return may be extremely low. Conversely, a low coupon trigger of 85% with a 65% barrier might pay consistently and offer a better outcome. Focus on the realistic probability of payout, not just the headline figure. ✅ 3. Choose Index-Based Notes for Flexibility and Control Index-based structured products are often ideal for a wide range of investors, as they allow for: Adjusting risk levels through index selection (e.g., S&P 500 vs Euro Stoxx 50) Customizing coupon triggers to suit client preferences (e.g., 85% for conservative clients who need stable returns or 100% for more adventurous ones willing to wait for higher payouts) They offer a degree of diversification and stability that stock-based notes often can’t match. ✅ 4. Use Caution with Stock-Based Notes While stock-based notes can deliver high returns, they come with increased capital risk: They’re tied to single companies, vulnerable to shocks like CEO resignations/deaths, lawsuits, or sector-specific disruptions. Big names don’t always mean safety — companies like Twitter lost over 50% of their value multiple times before being delisted. These are typically suited to adventurous clients or niche portfolio strategies, not core holdings. ✅ 5. Recognize the Real Cost of “Guaranteed” Features When a structured note offers guaranteed features, such as: Fixed returns 100% capital protection Guaranteed coupons …these features generally reduce the yield. An 80% barrier product may offer 7% p.a., while a fully guaranteed product might offer only 2-3%. Guarantees aren’t free — they are paid for through lower growth potential. ✅ 6. Watch for Soft Callable Structures Soft-callable notes are misunderstood. These products give the issuing bank the discretion (not obligation) to auto-call the note: Even if the product is above its auto-call level, the issuer may choose not to call it, especially if it’s not financially advantageous for them. Advisors must explain to clients that these will likely run the full term, not mature early, and returns may be delayed. Soft-callable = bank’s benefit first, not the client’s. ✅ 7. MY CHOICE: Combine Notes for Risk-Adjusted Performance A highly effective approach is to blend two complementary structured notes: Note 1: Low coupon trigger (e.g. 80–85%) with regular, smaller payouts Note 2: “Snowball” note with a higher trigger (e.g. 100%), paying a larger coupon when it auto-calls or matures This creates a balanced outcome: Consistent income from the first Potential for a larger lump sum from the second Combined average return that often exceeds the individual components This strategy suits retail investors who want steady cash flow with the upside of a bigger payout down the line. ✅ Final Thoughts: It’s About Suitability, Not Headlines Choosing the right structured note means going beyond the glossy brochure or eye-catching coupon. Advisors must: Understand the underlying mechanics and risks Match product types with the client’s goals and appetite for risk Educate clients on what to realistically expect Structured notes aren’t one-size-fits-all — but when properly selected and explained, they can enhance portfolios in both bull and bear markets.

Written by Lloyd Adams, TEAM Plc An adage states that Mr. Market tends to inflict the greatest amount of pain on the greatest number of participants. Wildly unpredictable policy gyrations in the White House, fears over the outlook for corporate profits, and the unsustainable path of mounting G7 government deficits were all seemingly good reasons for money managers to batten down the hatches during May. Yet global equities surged, with the MSCI World Index up almost 5% in sterling terms—its best month in six—as investors warmly embraced the ‘TACO’ trade. Pithily coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong, the term encapsulates the notion that (President) “Trump Always Chickens Out” on trade policies, particularly in relation to his beloved tariffs, and that risky assets rise in response. Trump’s latest TACO offering concerned Europe, with the Donald performing a volte-face less than 72 hours after threatening a straight 50% tariff on all EU exports, following a “very nice” phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The White House administration is seeking to close a $230 billion trade deficit with the EU, and the two leaders agreed to push back the deadline for reaching an agreement to July 9. Tech giants pushed the technology-laden Nasdaq 100 up 8.6% over the month, with market darling Nvidia delivering top-line and bottom-line earnings results that assuaged fears over weakening demand for AI-related chips—at least in the short term. Note that the Magnificent 7 (Apple Inc., Microsoft Corporation, Amazon.com Inc., Nvidia Corporation, Alphabet Inc., Meta Platforms Inc., and Tesla Inc.) have accounted for well over half of the S&P 500 Index return since the lows in early April. European equities followed suit, with the MSCI Europe ex-UK Index rising 5.1%, as TACO-driven optimism about U.S.–EU trade talks boosted technology and export-oriented cyclicals. The UK’s FTSE All-Share underperformed slightly, returning 4%, as defensive sectors like utilities and healthcare faced pressures from rising G7 bond yields and U.S. drug pricing reforms. Emerging markets—particularly Taiwan (+12%) and South Korea (+7.8%)—surged on AI and semiconductor demand, aided by a weaker U.S. dollar. Fixed income markets faced some turbulence, with the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index down 0.5%. A major development in recent weeks has been the sustained rise in global long-duration bond yields. This reflects a combination of fiscal concerns on financing existing government debt mountains and planned fiscal largesse, leading to weaker demand at long-dated auctions. While America has dominated the narrative in this regard, Japan, Germany, and UK government bond yields have risen far more sharply. Similar selling pressure has not been witnessed within the investment-grade corporate bond and high-yield corporate bond sectors, both of which have seen substantial spread compression (indicating a rosier outlook for companies) since the carnage of early April. The journey spreads have taken over the past six weeks in both sectors also suggests that an outright recession led by the U.S. will likely be avoided. Commodities were mixed. Oil prices stabilized at over $60 per barrel, supported by OPEC+ supply tweaks but restrained somewhat by ongoing demand concerns. The most interesting development was arguably in the gold space. Recent front-page headlines about the $3,500-an-ounce level being achieved attracted a flurry of late-to-the-party ETF buying—only for the yellow metal to correct by -10% intramonth, as TACO-driven risk-on sentiment reduced haven demand. A classic washout.   Portfolio Positioning The S&P 500’s 20% V-shaped rally from the early April lows has been among the most ferocious and impressive in recent history. Yet, despite the noisy headlines, the reality is that most major markets remain essentially flat for the year so far. The marginal buyer remains a “buy the dip” retail investor who has steadfastly ploughed more than $80 billion into U.S. equities via ETFs and single stocks in April and May alone. Our investment framework indicates that the prevailing view of “U.S. exceptionalism,” which peaked with Trump’s euphoric election victory and dominated portfolio positioning in the fourth quarter of 2024, marked the beginning of a steady drift of asset migration away from America—specifically, Nvidia and AI-related technology, the dollar, and ‘not-so-safe’ U.S. Treasuries—into international markets. The strategy of blending safe, short-term U.S. Treasuries with seemingly impervious “risk-on” mega-cap technology shares (including Nvidia) brought with it an exceptional short-term risk-adjusted return profile—but also a generous helping of concentration risk, correlation risk, and currency risk. This is now beginning to be more carefully appreciated. An unwind is underway, although we don’t anticipate an extreme one-off event. TEAM’s equity exposure continues to exhibit a balanced tilt between U.S. and ex-U.S. markets—specifically Europe (relative valuation merit, fiscal largesse catalysts, well-capitalised banking and insurance sectors), India (valuation reset, global tariff insulation, rate-cutting cycle that should boost housing and consumption), and Chinese technology shares (steep discount to Magnificent 7 valuations, earnings growth inflecting upwards, stellar operational performance not reflected in current prices). Within fixed income, physical gold has replaced our long-duration bond exposure given the backdrop of mounting government deficits and a wall of supply this year that could create refinancing problems for weaker companies. Our preference in the space remains high-quality investment-grade corporate credits and financial hybrid bonds issued by well-capitalised European banks and insurance companies. Gold remains essential portfolio insurance, while selective high-quality precious metal mining stocks offer excellent upside potential. Following an extended period of industry consolidation and renewed focus on capital efficiency, the survivors are making hay. At current spot prices (both gold and silver), significant cash flow generation offers scope for meaningful share buybacks and/or special dividends through this bull market cycle.

In an unpredictable global market, many investors are searching for ways to balance growth with protection. Structured notes—while sometimes misunderstood—offer a flexible and powerful tool that can complement a traditional portfolio of funds, ETFs, and stocks. Below are five key reasons why smart financial advisers are increasingly recommending structured notes to clients.   1. Built-In Protection in Volatile Markets One of the most attractive features of structured notes is their downside protection. Most notes include a protection barrier—commonly set at 60% to 80% of the starting market level—which cushions clients from moderate market declines. For example, if the protection barrier is set at 70%, the client’s capital is protected as long as the underlying index or asset doesn’t fall below 70% of its initial value by maturity. This feature provides peace of mind during turbulent market conditions, where traditional equity investments may suffer sharp losses.   2. Steady Income from Low Coupon Triggers Structured notes can be designed to pay coupons (income) even when the market drops slightly. Unlike traditional dividend stocks or funds, many structured notes often use a coupon trigger level—typically 80%, 85%, or 90% of the starting value. As long as the underlying asset remains above this level on a predefined observation date, the client receives their full income. This means clients may still earn consistent income even in flat or slightly negative market conditions—something most mutual funds or ETFs can’t promise. 3. Defined Outcomes and Predictability Another reason structured notes are gaining popularity is their clarity of outcome. Clients know what return they can expect if certain conditions are met. This is in contrast to equity or fund investments, where returns can be highly variable and unpredictable. For example, a structured note may offer a 9% annual coupon with capital protection down to a 70% barrier. That clarity appeals to risk-conscious investors and helps advisers manage expectations better.   4. Portfolio Stability Without Sacrificing Returns   While structured notes shouldn’t replace core investments, they offer valuable diversification and stability. By including structured products, advisers can introduce a buffer against sharp losses in equity-heavy portfolios—without sacrificing return potential. In falling markets, most mutual funds and ETFs lose value directly in line with the market. Structured notes, on the other hand, only incur losses if the protection barrier is breached and the product is held to maturity. As long as the market recovers above the barrier level before maturity, capital is preserved.   5. Reduced Anxiety During Global Uncertainty In times of political or economic unpredictability—like Donald Trump’s tariff wars or other sudden geopolitical announcements—markets can react swiftly and irrationally. Equity funds may drop in value, investor confidence may dip, and panic selling can quickly derail long-term plans. Structured notes offer a solution: as long as the protection barrier isn’t breached by maturity, the client gets their capital back, often with interest. Unlike stocks or funds that must recover in price for an investor to break even, a structured product can ignore the temporary noise, ride out volatility, and deliver its predefined outcome. This structure can reduce emotional decision-making and provide clients with a sense of control even when headlines feel chaotic.   Conclusion Structured notes aren’t right for every client and, like all investments, they do carry some risks. When used appropriately, they provide defined income, downside protection, and valuable diversification that can enhance a portfolio’s resilience—particularly in uncertain markets. Advisers looking for smarter ways to navigate today’s investment landscape should consider structured notes as a powerful tool in the planning process.

Written by Andrew Gillham Head of Fixed Income, TEAM Plc The stock market rally came to an abrupt halt at the end of the last week after Donald Trump, frustrated by a lack of progress on trade talks, threatened to impose a straight 50% tariff on imports from the European Union in a post on Truth Social on Friday morning.  The US President also warned Apple that he would impose at least a 25% import tax on all iPhones not manufactured in America. Shares in the smartphone manufacturer fell more than 3% on the day, extending their losses for the week to 8%. The blue-chip S&P 500 and technology focussed Nasdaq indices fell 2.7% and 2.5% respectively over the week. Not for the first time, the US President stepped back from his threatened tariffs following a “very nice” phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Sunday.  The White House administration is seeking to close a $230 billion trade deficit with the EU and the two leaders agreed to push back the deadline for reaching an agreement to July 9.   Rising government bond yields also weighed on investor sentiment last week. On Wednesday, the US sold $16 billion of 20-year US Treasury bonds at 5%, the highest interest rate for 20-year bonds at auction since 2020. Primary dealers also absorbed the 16.9% of the offering which were not taken up by other investors. The weak auction reflects investor concerns over the country’s spiralling debt burden which is back in the spotlight at a time the White House is seeking to push the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” through Congress which will make permanent the individual income and estate tax cuts passed in Trump’s first term in 2017. It will also make good on promises he made during the election campaign not to tax tips or overtime. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the tax cuts will add $3.8 trillion to America’s debt over the next decade, in line with the rating agency Moody’s which cut the country’s AAA credit rating earlier this month. The Republican controlled House of Representatives voted 215-214 to pass the bill on Thursday, sending it on to the Senate for approval. In company news, shares in EasyJet fell 3% on Thursday after it reported a £394 million loss over the October – March winter period, despite carrying 39.5 million passengers, 8% more than a year earlier, on its 350 aircraft.  This year’s late Easter added to the more challenging winter period for all European airlines. The low-cost airline’s chief executive Kenton Jarvis also warned that deliveries of new aircraft from Airbus will be delayed but reiterated earlier guidance that it remains on track to generate a record full-year annual profits of £700 million due to strong demand for its flights and holidays over the peak summer season. EasyJet has sold around 80% of its seas for the current quarter Apple’s lagging performance during the week was not just down to the threat of tariffs. The iPhone manufacturer was also hit by OpenAI’s agreement to acquire former Apple design chief Sir Jony Ive’s artificial intelligence device startup io for $6.4 billion. Announcing the deal, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called Ive “the greatest designer in the world” and he will be tasked to lead the creation of a family of products for the artificial general intelligence era, or to “completely re-imagine what it means to use a computer”.  Earlier this month, Apple’s head of services told a US court that “you may not need an iPhone 10 years from now, as crazy as it sounds”. In economic news, annual consumer price inflation in the UK accelerated in April to 3.5%, a 15-month high. The increase was driven by higher utility bills, airfares and road taxes. Services inflation jumped to 5.4% from 4.7% a month earlier. The elevated readings will be a concern for policymakers and the Bank of England and money markets are now pricing in just one or two more quarter of a percentage points interest rate cuts during the remainder of the year. In commodities markets, the trade tensions and concerns of government borrowing increased the attraction of safe-haven precious metals and gold and silver gained 3.5% on the week. In contrast, fell back to $64 a barrel following reports that the OPEC+ cartel is considering a bigger than expected increase in production from July.